A few years ago I worked at a company that provided us with sales and revenue targets each year. Sales for what we “booked” this year, and revenue from what was sold earlier, and now installed. The problem, I soon discovered, is that we never met our revenue number, not once for over 4 years. I was stunned when my boss told me this, with a reticence that sounded like “it is what it is and there is nothing we can do about it” – so I asked some questions.
My hypothesis was simple, either we were colossally incompetent, and consistently so, or the number was wrong. After some digging, and a ton of math, it turned out that the number provided us was completely wrong. We had a better probability of being hit by a meteor than making that number. No one asked the obvious question regarding the accuracy of the assumptions that went into the calculations, projections and targets. Year after year, bonuses were missed, while we received abusive charges of incompetence from the leadership for missing a target that was statistically impossible to reach. What an astounding waste of time, energy and anxiety.
As it turned out, due to seismic requirements in California, the length of time required to install the equipment was nearly twice that of the national average. It just takes a moment to step back and evaluate the assumptions. Math is simple, but assumptions that drive math require thinking. There’s no excuse for not thinking and asking yourself, is what I think I know, really so?
