The Illusion of Certainty

Emphasizing consensus over dissent, according to James Surowiecki in The Wisdom of Crowds, people in small groups are inclined toward agreement.  Just think back to any primary grade when you said something contrary to the views of your naive, adolescent peers.  Few people enjoy such dissonance, and as Surowiecki says, tend to “prefer the illusion of certainty to the reality of doubt”.

This “illusion of certainty” certainly exists more for those outside healthcare than within.  Upon additional review of the Healthcare Reform Act, it seems to me that the authors have a different understanding of providing healthcare than currently exists.  Why else would anyone think that they poses all the knowledge and foresight to understand with clarity the eventual outcome of any specific act?

I just don’t get it.

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